Jim Bievers/Packers.com
The Raiders are a fine NFL team, but they are also the kind of team that the Packers should beat without too much trouble if the Packers are true Super Bowl contenders. The problem with the Packers hasn’t been winning games or contending for a playoff spot as they have had an objectively successful season and playoff berth in hand. In fact on paper they look like a pretty formidable team with an outstanding defense (265 points allowed, 5th best in football) and a pretty respectable offense (347 points, solidly in the top 10). Most teams will take that year in and year out, but the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers always have Super Bowl aspirations, and while those rankings may be fine when compared to average, looking only at likely playoff teams shines a bright light on the problems we’ve been seeing with this team. The top playoff teams are not just a little better than the Packers, they’re a lot better.
As I said, the Packers 347 points scored is solidly top ten, but their opponents next week, the Arizona Cardinals, have scored 445 points. In the NFC, the Packers rank fifth in scoring and the Cardinals rank 2nd, but the 98 point difference between the two is the same as the difference between the Packers and the Cowboys, who have the third worst offense in the entire NFL. The Panthers, obviously a lock for the postseason, have scored even more than Arizona while continuing to boast a superior defense. Even the Seahawks, now assured of a playoff spot, have scored 23 more points than the Packers.
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And yes, the Packers have only allowed an impressive 265 points, but the Seahawks, who have been gangbuster lately, have allowed only 248. The Cardinals, who have scored almost 100 points more than the Packers, have had a slightly worse defense, but just 4 points worse. Everything the Packers can point to as a strength is a much bigger strength for the real NFC contenders.
Another thing real contenders do is blow people out. Historically, destroying weaker competition has been a great indicator of a true Super Bowl contender. Last year’s Packers had 21+ point wins 6 times, and looked like world-beaters until the very end. This season the Packers have exactly one such game, last week against an absolutely punchless Cowboy team, currently in last place in one of the worst divisions in NFL history.
Sometimes a lackluster team will figure things out and start to peak late in the season. The aforementioned Seattle Seahawks are showing signs of great improvement at just the right time after some severe early season struggles. Both Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin have played at an extremely high level over their last 5 games (though a soft schedule has helped) and the Legion of Boom has been back to their old ways. The Packers, on the other hand, have seen a huge dropoff after a hot start. In their first five games the Packers outscored their opponents by 49 points (almost 10 points per game) but over their last 8 games they’re only a 33 point net positive (just a 4 point margin). The only things that have solved any problems for the Packers have been luck (Hail Mary), or facing a putrid opponent like the Cowboys.
While it’s true that anything can happen in the playoffs, and the Packers may even win a game against their probable first round opponents, the Vikings, it’s very hard to see them advancing any further. Their problems are well known, mostly personnel driven, and I’m sorry to say, unfixable. At this point Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, James Jones, Richard Rodgers and Ty Montgomery are what they are, which is to say “injured” or “bad”. The only way to truly fix this passing game is by adding better players, and it is far too late for that.
The Big Test
The Packers face the Cardinals next week, and so we will get an immediate test of just what happens when this Packer team faces a legitimate Super Bowl contender. My best guess is that the Cardinals win by three scores without issue. While Aaron Rodgers lacks elite weapons, Carson Palmer, no slouch in his own right, has a ton. They are statistically the 2nd most efficient passing offense in the NFL, and now that Andy Dalton is gone for the year, almost certainly the 1st going forward. The venerable Larry Fitzgerald is 3rd in DVOA, and he’s only the 2nd best wideout on the team. John Brown is second in the league from an efficiency standpoint to Seattle’s Tyler Lockett, but Brown leads overall in Adjusted Yards (meaning he’s been used a lot more while being almost as efficient). Rounding out the Arizona receivers is Michael Floyd, currently 7th in DVOA.
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The Cardinals are not a great running team and have suffered many injuries to their backfield, but David Johnson is coming off an impressive 187 yard, 3 TD performance against Chip Kelly’s Eagles. The Cardinals almost never struggle to score points, having put up 34 on the excellent Bengal defense and 39 on the latter season Seahawks. The Packer defense may keep things respectable, but to win they will ultimately need to score points, and that is going to be a problem.
You can fully expect the Packer offensive woes to continue. They caught a lucky break with all-world corner Tyrann Mathieu out for the season, but the Cardinals still boast a ferocious defense with stars like Patrick Peterson in the secondary and Calais Campbell up front. Arizona’s defense is 4th best in the league by DVOA behind only Denver, Carolina, and Kansas City. They are 5th against the pass, and first against the run, so if you were hoping from a bounce back from Lacy next week, it is unlikely.
Arizona’s lone weakness on defense is against pass-catching running-backs, so it is at least possible that James Starks could be a weapon, but it’s much more likely that the Packers simply can’t keep up.
I have some seen some people get bent out of shape about Packer fans complaining over a 30-20 win, but I understand it. It was an ugly win, built largely on plays that share some degree of luck. Damarious Randall, great as he is, does not usually score touchdowns. James Jones does not usually run completely open.
The Packers capitalized on an inexperienced quarterback and a defense that is still very much a work in progress, and still could have easily lost this game. Against the conference elites it’s not so much that you can’t make any mistakes, it’s more that you have luck into huge plays you don’t normally convert. Next week will be the week we learn just how far this team is capable of going. I’m willing to wager that it will be a harsh lesson.
